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To say that 2020 was a weird year for restaurants and hospitality would be... the understatement of the decade. A nuclear bomb decimated a large portion of our industry, forcing thousands of independent restaurants and small businesses to shut their doors, while leaving hundreds of thousands of people unemployed. Lives were lost. Livelihoods were lost. Existential crises were had.

If you're reading this, congratulations on making it to Level 2021!

Before we get into what the future likely holds, take a moment and remember that despite everything, you're alive, you're tough as nails (you wouldn't be in this industry if you weren't!), and no matter what happens, we will get through this. Take a deep breath. Roll your shoulders back. Unclench your jaw. Soften the muscles between your eyes. Take another deep breath. Drink a glass of water. Stretch. Get comfortable.

2021 Restaurant Industry Predictions

Top 7 Overall Themes:

1. Resiliency - Resiliency is the ability to overcome challenges of all kinds – trauma, tragedy, personal crises, everyday life problems – and bounce back stronger, wiser, and more personally powerful. 2020 was the restaurant industry's "sink or swim" moment - as shitty and uncomfortable as it has been for all of us. Businesses and workers alike have been forced to pivot and adapt in this period of forced change. In 2021, waiting for help is no longer an option - it has become clear that we must give up on the idea of government assistance. If we want to continue in this industry, we must learn to save ourselves - what happened was not our fault, but our recovery is our responsibility. Both businesses and individuals must conquer their fear of change while accepting and adapting to the "new normal" - we must surrender to the chaos, and likely go back to the drawing board. Think of this year as a Chopped mystery basket of rules and regulations - what will you make out of it all? This year, the focus will be on collectively defining the future we want to embrace - and working together to create something new.
   

2. Upheaval - This year will be the year of destruction - we will see a massive purging and dismantling of what hasn't worked in this industry for a long time. The restaurant industry's shadows will come to the surface. Scandals will ripple throughout the industry, especially in regards to underpayment/mistreatment of workers/misappropriation of relief funds, and it likely won't be fun for a lot of the bigger names in the business. If we look critically, this really began in 2017 with the #metoo movement. The industry has been on the verge of a reckoning for decades now, and the younger generation is not going to tolerate a lot of the abusive "cultural norms" that many of us have endured throughout our careers.
   

3. Sovereignty - Sovereignty is the full right and power of a governing body over itself, without any interference from outside sources or bodies. This will apply to both businesses and individuals in 2021, as everyone works towards finding ways to reduce our reliance on outside sources. For businesses, sovereignty looks like: rooftop/parking lot gardens to prevent supply chain issues; solar panels/renewables to reduce utility bills; zero-waste initiatives; connecting with the local supply chain & distancing from price-gouging mega-suppliers like Sysco/GFS - anything that pushes a business toward being more "off-grid" and self-reliant. For individuals, sovereignty looks like: self-employment! This is one of the biggest trends we see happening in 2021. The demand for personal chefs will skyrocket as consumers view it as a safer alternative than packed restaurants. Many chefs - especially those under 40 - will be seeking ways to free themselves from wage slavery and the uncertainty of restaurant work, while prioritizing work-life balance. In-home dining will be a fast-growing niche that will lead to a huge paradigm shift in the industry.
   

4. Social & environmental responsibility - The Takeout Revolution is here to stay, at least for a while. Many are worried about the environmental impact of all the extra packaging waste, though. 2021 will bring a lot of innovation in packaging and green initiatives - whether that means compostable/recyclable containers, packaging "deposits" on reusable containers (similar to the concept of beer growlers - bring it back & get a discount on the next order), or possibly even edible packaging for the most adventurous places.
   

5. Prioritizing self care & mental health - there has been a huge shift in the last year of chefs who are finally speaking out about the elephant in the kitchen: the fact that most of us are struggling hard with our mental health. Restaurant-specific online support groups have seen a dramatic increase in growth, and workers are beginning to realize that it's not sustainable to work 100hrs a week for decades. With the pandemic, employers have finally been forced to give their staff time off if they've contracted or been exposed to COVID-19 - now that we all know that this is possible, we don't expect it to go back to the way it used to be.
   

6. Financial Diversification - After the instability and chaos of 2020, 2021 will be The Year of the Side Hustle. Both businesses and individuals will (/should!) prioritize diversifying their income instead of "putting all their eggs in one basket" - in case of surprises, closures, or new regulations. For businesses, this might look like: selling sauces, dips, and side dishes in a "market" setting; repurposing unused indoor dining space; renting out their kitchen to other businesses during days off/slow periods; partnering with local farms to do outdoor dinners; setting up a booth at a local farmer's market with limited menu options; etc. For chefs, this might look like: starting a spice/sauce brand; selling a consumable product (breads, cupcakes, etc); doing occasional private parties; freelancing with multiple caterers; teaching classes; specializing in a niche; writing a book; doing meal prep/delivery for private clients; etc.
   

7. Going with the flow/embracing rapid change - For a long time, our industry prided itself on its ability to stick to tradition. There is a time and a place for this, but 2021 is neither of those. Fixed, rigid mindsets about "the way it's always been" will not fare well in the near future. The most successful chefs and businesses in this period will be the ones who keep one eye looking toward the future - the ones who see the swell begin to rise, adjust their sails, and ride the wave. It's likely that a majority of us in this business will be forced to either change jobs, temporarily switch industries (check out our giant list of ways to transition into another industry!), re-work our business plans, re-write menus & adjust recipes as supply/demand fluctuates, or move to a new location. Release the need to be attached to a particular outcome - chances are, it's not going to go the way you expect anyway. Be open to the unknown. Our best advice for this: spend some time doing a resiliency exercise, and making a personal contingency plan.
   

How to do a Personal Resiliency/Contingency Plan:

1. Get a piece of paper and divide it into 4 columns.

2. Begin to brainstorm - what are some of the worst possible things that could happen in your life, your career, or your business in the near future? Write down your top 5-10 in the first column.

3. In the second column, write down the worst thing that could happen if the situation actually manifested.

4. In column 3, write down the best case scenario.

5. In column 4, write down a few things you can do to be proactive and prevent the worst from happening.

Doing an exercise like this helps to reduce future anxiety - by planning for the worst, we are less likely to be paralyzed by fear or uncertainty if/when a crisis hits, because we have already thought about and planned for ways we can get ourselves out of that particular mess. It can be hard to think clearly when a crisis hits - this type of exercise gives us a direction to aim when we're feeling disoriented or lost.

Here's our sample chart to get you started!

Rising Industry Trends to Pay Attention to in 2021

1. Functional Nutrition/Healthy but tasty

As much as many chefs hate it, the plant-based trend is here to stay. More and more diners are focusing on their health and are experimenting with flexitarian diets and reducing their meat consumption. Nutrition will become more important - conscious diners are developing a growing interest in immune-boosting foods, adaptogens, and functional ingredients - and menus/chefs who understand and highlight this trend will be sought after.

2. Ghost Kitchens

These rental kitchens have been popping up like crazy in US coastal cities, and are gradually making their way inland. If you're not familiar with the concept, they're basically affordable, licensed community kitchens - rentable by the hour, day, week, or month by multiple brands at a time. Ghost kitchens are built in "unused space" - shipping containers, former office space, parking lots, formerly abandoned shopping malls, et cetera. These "virtual restaurants" are perfect for online-only brands, or as auxiliary brands for existing restaurants. One of the more interesting applications we've seen of this concept: an existing, established restaurant with a cohesive theme (say, a southern bbq restaurant or food truck) takes its leftovers/surplus to a ghost kitchen, and creates an online-only offshoot doing fusion sandwiches and gourmet tacos, effectively doubling their revenue. There is a lot of possibility with the concept, they don't require much capital to begin, and the rental terms are often super flexible - making them fairly low-risk as compared to brick-and-mortar operations. [further references & links at the end!]

3. Simplification

A huge trend we've noticed has been the push for simplification. Recently, there's been less of a focus on opulence and luxury ingredients, and more of a focus on comfort and nourishment. Childhood classics have dominated social media this year - from homemade breads to gourmet mac & cheese to braised short ribs and stews to simple stir-frys with rice. Food is a potent emotional trigger, and meals that evoke simpler, happier times have predictably risen in popularity. We've noticed this in restaurant design, too - minimalism, farmhouse style, natural building materials, plants & living decor, and muted earth tones have dominated new spaces, and more ostentatious displays of luxury have begun to take a back seat.

4. Retro-Futurism

On the other end of the spectrum, food has quietly been taking a more science fiction-y turn. Neon and holographic colors, textural contrasts, geometric shapes, bold flavor pairings, and more cosmically-inspired dishes have seen a sharp rise in recent popularity. Retro-futurism incorporates food, art, culture, and science in new and innovative ways - think of it as the food of the future, as conceptualized by the people of the past. Unlike the molecular gastronomy trend of the late 2000's (the let's make it crazy because we can! mentality), retro-futurism is more intentional, socially conscious, and focuses on the sensory experience of the diner. Asian inspired flavors and more delicate techniques tend to dominate this style, as do sustainable products and plant-based proteins. In terms of design, think LED lights, 80's graphics, neon signs, Tokyo-style community vending machines, color blocking, and clean, abstract lines. If Bladerunner, Stranger Things, and The Midnight Gospel combined their aesthetic, they'd nail this vibe completely. (We love this, if you haven't noticed!)

5. Return to our Roots

For many chefs, this will be the year that they stop experimenting with fusion/global cuisine and begin to truly explore their family's cultural heritage. Due to the worldwide travel bans, many will be seeking to travel with their palates instead. A rise in specialized, underrepresented regional delivery popups is expected - think Irish, Scottish, & Northern European comfort foods, traditional Balkan cuisine, regional American (Northeastern, Midwestern, etc), Nigerian, Afghani, etc. - "Refined Grandma Cuisine" will be a major player this year.

6. Rise of POC/Indigenous chefs & cuisines

With the current political climate in the west, we predict that 2021 will bring a welcome elevation of BIPOC chefs and the foods that shaped their cultures. Soul food, storytelling, less "refined" foods, pre-colonialism, foraging, and living off the land have all been trending recently, and we anticipate the momentum to continue. Pro tip: don't try to capitalize off of this if it's not your culture. Step aside and let marginalized communities tell their own stories through food. If you want to incorporate foods from these communities into your own restaurant, hire marginalized folx, let them teach you, and give them credit for their contributions. Chefs to watch: Rich Francis (pictured above) Why we love him: Rich went from fine dining and Top Chef Canada to being a champion of modern indigenous cuisine. His feed is full of beautiful outdoor shots of foraged and wild game food porn, as well as a ton of information about first nations people, culture, and food sovereignty. He is highly inspirational and makes you think about things that most chefs stay silent on (like how colonization has messed up the diets and culture of indigenous populations). He's also an author & host of Red Chef Revival.

Chefs to watch: Klancy Miler (pictured above) Why we love her: Klancy is the author of COOKING SOLO & Founder of For the Culture: A magazine celebrating Black women in food and wine. Instead of endless self-promotion, she uses her platform to highlight the success of others - something the food world needs more of. She is also not afraid to discuss the intersectionality of food, politics, and culture in a compassionate, inspiring way. Her positivity shines through and she is a joy to follow.

7. Hyper-local

One trend that thrives on social media, yet interestingly hasn't gotten much media attention in the last year is what we're going to call "Doomsday Gourmet" - when spring hit, there was a huge uptick in people who were curious about what grows in their local area, and how to utilize it. Maybe it's the low-key pending apocalypse vibes 2020 threw at us, but edible wild + native plants - things like dandelion, nettle, loquat, purslane, foraged mushrooms, acorns, and wild berries - are piquing diner curiosity like never before.

Chefs to watch: Alan Bergo (pictured above) Why we love him: Alan is a chef who specializes in foraged mushrooms, wild plants and offal. He's the author of The Forager Chef’s Book of Flora & host of The Wild Harvest - a beautifully shot how-to that covers everything from harvesting to cooking wild ingredients. His food is super unique and the way he uses ingredients that are unfamiliar to most never fails to inspire. He's definitely someone we want on our Apocalypse Team.

8. Zero-waste initiatives

It's no secret that the food industry has a horrifying problem with food waste. Enough food gets thrown out in the US alone to feed several countries every year - and people are finally starting to do something about it. Zero-waste is the ultimate form of creativity for the chef who loves a challenge - can you force yourself to think outside of the box, plan ahead, and use ingredients that most throw out without a second thought? This year in particular, zero-waste initiatives are incredibly smart to adopt for our industry - it's an easy way to increase those razor-thin profit margins, while also helping to save the planet.

Chefs to watch: Vojtech Vegh (pictured above); check out our podcast interview with him! Why we love him: Vojtech takes zero-waste to another level entirely as a plant-based zero waste chef, author, and consultant. He opened the first zero-waste vegan restaurant in the world in Cambodia, and is passionate about teaching chefs and businesses how to reduce their food waste. His new book, Surplus: The Chef's Guide to Food Waste is the book the food industry has needed for decades. Written for chefs by chefs, Vojtech teaches us how to cook without food waste, shares insights into running a kitchen without a bin (it's possible!), walks us through zero-waste menu planning and development of new plant-based dishes, and teaches many ways to save costs by reducing your food waste. The methods and steps described in the book can be applied in every professional kitchen, whether it’s a small bistro or a large restaurant.

9. Creative Work-Arounds

Dine-in/Table service might be cancelled for the foreseeable future - but that doesn't mean the only option is take-out. For example, a resurgence in 50s Carhop style service is likely - in this model, groups are discouraged (the average car only seats 4-6), diners are self-contained in their own vehicle, food can be safely enjoyed on-premise, and the experience is both novel for the younger crowd and nostalgic to older generations.

10. Alternative protein sources

In the western world at least, there's been a huge movement towards non-traditional protein sources - mycoprotein, insect protein, and nut proteins in particular have been steadily on the rise for the last few years. Expect this trend to continue - this sector is going through a lot of exciting, interesting innovation right now.

11. Collaborative Hospitality groups

Expect the barter economy to grow this year, especially as supply chains get shorter. Restaurant co-operatives have been slowly popping up across the country - combining resources to help each other stay open and cut bigger expenses by sharing dumpster/cleaning costs, splitting bulk orders from local farmers & artisans, sharing delivery drivers, offering "combo orders" from multiple places, starting a community garden or hydroponic grow system in unused dining/parking space, hosting online classes/how-tos with other chefs, taking turns shopping for each other, etc. In an environment as uncertain as this, collaboration is the key to success.

12. Cultivating Diner Trust

Transparency in ingredients, truth in labeling, and integrity are growing trends with younger diners - and younger diners make up a large portion of the delivery market. Food fraud is also a current hot topic - from fake honey to diluted olive oil, consumers are getting smarter and asking more questions. Clean ingredients - free from pesticides, hormones, antibiotics, artificial colors, preservatives, and unnecessary processing - have risen higher in search results recently and many restaurants have reported an increase in diner inquiries into the specifics of the products being used. To get ahead of this, train your staff to understand your purchasing - where are your ingredients sourced, why did you choose those suppliers, and what makes them special? Knowing your why will be one of the most important things to master this year.

13. Koji & Modern Fermentation

Koji (aspergillus oryzae - aka, the mold that makes soy sauce, sake, tempeh, and miso) is experiencing a modern renaissance. The enzymes present in this particular strain of mold allow chefs to rapid-cure and tenderize meats and vegetables - achieving the effects of a weeks-long dry aging process in as few as 3 days. Designer miso is on the rise, as well as koji-infused amino sauces, pastes, and marinades. As a follow-up to the sourdough mania we saw in 2020, we expect diners to broaden their fermentation knowledge this year. Gut-healing foods, especially pre and probiotics, have been popping up everywhere lately. With homeschooling on the rise, science lessons are turning more and more edible - as a result, 2021 might be the year of sauerkraut's return. Chefs to watch: Jeremy Umansky (pictured above) Why we love him: Jeremy is basically the Willy Wonka of mold and fermentation. Owner of Larder Delicatessen & Bakery, licensed wild mushroom expert, and author of Koji Alchemy (as well as a recovered addict who often uses his voice to shed light on these issues in our industry!), his food is truly unlike anything else out there. His feed is littered with mold spores growing on just about everything - from whole turkeys to cubes of fat to mac & cheese - and the results are in a category of their own. Jeremy is not afraid to let his nerdiness shine through, walking us through the details of his thought process and explaining why an experiment worked (or didn't!). He is consistently innovating, pushing boundaries, and forcing us to redefine how we think about fermentation, and we are always inspired by him!

14. Online Classes

With everyone cooped up inside, many people are realizing that they have no idea how to cook. Smart chefs are using this to their advantage - some are growing their social media following with easy hacks and tutorials, others are using their downtime to create an online course that will turn into a passive income stream, and some are doing live classes via Zoom. Whichever route you take, consumers are hungry for knowledge and willing to pay - in both money and attention. Provide value, and you will be rewarded.

15. Seaweed

It's not just for sushi anymore! Seaweed is gaining popularity in the food world for a variety of reasons: first, it's incredibly sustainable. Seaweeds are a highly renewable food resource - meaning, they can be grown and harvested all year round, in any marine environment (for any temperature, depth of water or geographical location there is a species of seaweed that can grow there). Production is low impact - seaweeds need no chemicals, fertilizers or pesticides, they require no deforestation or freshwater to grow.

They don’t deplete their own environment of minerals - as over-intensive farming on the soil does - they actively improve the quality of the water.

Brown seaweeds actually ‘fix’ the nitrogen content of their surrounding water - which is used as an environmentally friendly solution to nitrogen pollution from agricultural run-off. They are exceptionally nutrient dense and contain high levels of minerals (calcium, magnesium, iron, and iodine), proteins, dietary fiber, electrolytes and vitamins (especially b12, which is hard to get on a plant-based diet!), as well as being very low in calories- making them a very tasty way to nourish your mental and physical health. The micronutrients and electrolytes in seaweed are bioavailable, in a form that human cells need to mesh with their metabolisms.

Perhaps most relevant to our industry though: seaweed is delicious in all forms, highly versatile in preparation, vegan/vegetarian/allergen friendly, and often a novel food experience for western diners.

What are your thoughts? What trends have you noticed recently? Discuss your thoughts in the comments section or in our private Facebook group.

[explore]

How can some people adapt, while others simply struggle?

What COULD the future of hospitality look like? (The Best Case Scenario) - https://www.theconsciouschefs.com/post/the-best-case-scenario

Feeling like a career change is imminent? Here's a giant list of ways to transition out of restaurants & how to use your kitchen skills in other industries - https://www.theconsciouschefs.com/post/what-if-restaurants-dont-reopen

[Further Reading & Resources]

All these celebrity restaurant wage-theft scandals point to an industry norm - https://theconversation.com/all-these-celebrity-restaurant-wage-theft-scandals-point-to-an-industry-norm-131286

Wage theft is a business model. Let's criminalize it - https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/wage-theft-is-a-business-model-let-s-criminalise-it-20190718-p528c4.html

The Restaurant Industry Is Roiling As Sexual Harassment Scandals Claim More Chefs - https://www.forbes.com/sites/michelinemaynard/2017/12/14/the-restaurant-industry-is-roiling-as-the-sexual-harassment-scandal-claims-more-chefs/?sh=2be362e95889

Want Better Working Conditions in Restaurants? Build a Co-op - https://www.eater.com/2018/5/21/17369640/co-op-restaurants

GHOST KITCHENS ARE HERE TO STAY—HERE’S HOW TO MAKE THE MOST OF THE MODEL - https://www.restaurantbusinessonline.com/operations/ghost-kitchens-are-here-stay-heres-how-make-most-model

The 2020 Guide to Ghost Kitchens - roaminghunger.com/blog/15623/ghost-kitchens-everything-you-must-know/

More And More Restaurants Are Turning To 'Ghost Kitchens' During The COVID-19 Pandemic - https://www.delish.com/food/a29462910/ghost-cloud-kitchen-trend-fast-food-chains/

The rise of 'ghost kitchens': Here's what the online food ordering boom has produced - https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2019/10/21/ghost-kitchen-virtual-restaurant-heres-how-works/4053659002/

The Seneca Nation Is Building Food Sovereignty, One Bison at a Time - https://civileats.com/2021/01/14/from-bison-to-syrup-the-seneca-nation-is-making-strides-in-food-sovereignty/

Strengthening Food Sovereignty Movements - https://www.cornucopia.org/2020/06/strengthening-food-sovereignty-movements/

Indigenous Foods: How Colonized Diets Have Made Native Nations Sick — and What’s Being Done About It Today - https://foodrevolution.org/blog/indigenous-foods-systems-food-sovereignty/

Interest in Foraging Is Booming. Here’s How to Do it Right - https://civileats.com/2020/07/09/interest-in-foraging-is-booming-heres-how-to-do-it-right/

Food Forager Thinks COVID-19 Will Teach People to ‘Provide for Themselves’ - https://news.wttw.com/2020/05/07/food-forager-thinks-covid-19-will-teach-people-provide-themselves

People are seeking out professional foragers amid fears that grocery stores will run out food - https://www.businessinsider.com/foraging-plants-nature-coronavirus-food-2020-5

Plant-based Protein Market Growth by Emerging Trends, Analysis, & Forecast to 2026 - https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/21/02/ab19578630/plant-based-protein-market-growth-by-emerging-trends-analysis-forecast-to-2026

The Top 10 Trends In Plant-Based Food In 2020—And Where We’re Going In 2021 - https://www.forbes.com/sites/briankateman/2020/12/21/the-top-10-trends-in-plant-based-food-in-2020-and-where-were-going-in-2021/?sh=59aa31433729

The Zero-Waste Movement Meets Fine Dining - https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/02/11/the-zero-waste-movement-meets-fine-dining

How to Cook With Koji, the Savory Secret Weapon That Chefs Love (And You Can, Too) - https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/cook-koji-savory-secret-weapon-150738822.html

Eat the Dishes - https://www.eatthedishes.com/

2021 State of the Restaurant Industry - https://restaurant.org/research/reports/state-of-restaurant-industry

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